Market highlights
- US$31 billion worth of bitcoin options will expire on October 31.
- Alleged “Trump insider whale” closes another BTC short position with US$6.4 million profit.
- Crypto executives met with U.S. Senators to discuss the stalled crypto market structure bill.
- Binance Founder, Changpeng Zhao (also known as “CZ”), was pardoned by President Trump.
- Kadena (KDA) ceased business operations due to unsustainable market conditions.
Markets Overview
Upward momentum across risk assets resumed this week, with the major U.S. indexes closing at fresh all-time highs. The gains were presumably due to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.3% in September, below the forecast 0.4%. The weaker-than-expected reading adds further confidence that the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will likely cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its October 29 meeting. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may also announce an end to Quantitative Tightening (QT) after the FOMC’s meeting. The end of QT is expected to begin almost immediately.
Strong Q3 earnings also boosted risk assets this week, with analysts anticipating Q3 earnings growth of 10.4% year-on-year, up from 8.8% forecast at the start of October. Elsewhere, the German and U.K. flash manufacturing and services PMI updates each came in at or above forecast. In the U.K., the manufacturing PMI came in above forecast at 49.6, while the German and U.S. services PMI came in above forecast at 54.5 and 55.2, respectively.
This week, President Trump and President Xi will meet on Thursday, October 30, potentially addressing this year’s persistent trade issues and agreeing on a U.S.-China trade deal. Over the weekend, the two nations agreed on a trade framework at the Association of South-East Asian Nations summit. Also this week, five of the “magnificent seven” companies, including Apple and Microsoft, will report their Q3 earnings.
Weekly performance: S&P 500 +1.9%, Dow Jones +2%, Nasdaq +2%.
Looking ahead:
- U.S. FOMC rate decision – Wednesday, October 29
- Bank of Canada overnight rate decision – Wednesday, October 29
- Bank of Japan policy rate decision – Thursday, October 30 (tentative)
- European Central Bank main refinancing rate decision – Thursday, October 30
Crypto Market Sector Performance
Sector growth was mixed this week, with some sectors posting minor gains and others minor losses. Some of these gains point to a potential recovery and resumption of upward momentum since the October 10 sell-off, though several macro catalysts are currently converging, which could increase volatility.
Biggest gainer
- Store of Value: Bitcoin Cash (+16.2%) gained on the shift in macro sentiment, plus an uptick in derivatives trading activity on the network as both whales and smaller retail traders capitalise on negative funding rates.
Crypto Market Sector Performance (7D)
Bitcoin (BTC)
- Opened the week at US$108,676, rallied toward US$112,00, retreated to US$107,000, and later regained strength to break above US$115,000, presumably on cooling U.S. CPI data, plus expectations of a U.S. rate cut and the growing likelihood that a U.S.-China trade deal may be struck. Price has since retreated slightly from the key level at US$116,000.(+3.5% 7D).
- BTC dominance hovered around 59.4% and 60% this week.
- Bitcoin investment products saw US$931 million of inflows this week.
Following this month’s flash crash, October’s bitcoin options expiry has hit a record US$31 billion worth of positions, much higher than last month’s US$18 billion expiry. Notable concentrations of put contracts are around US$100,000, while calls are clustered at US$120,000, signalling traders are betting on a retracement later this week or further strength following renewed upward momentum. Analysts suggest that a spike in volatility could trigger another liquidation event, as leveraged positions could exacerbate any upward or downward moves.
The alleged “Trump insider whale” has closed another large short-bitcoin position. The position, closed on Wednesday before bitcoin broke above US$110,000, secured US$6.4 million in profit. The same whale earned almost US$200 million earlier in the month by shorting bitcoin and Ethereum before President Trump’s October 10 tariff threats against China.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX moved over US$133 million worth of bitcoin on Friday, October 24. It’s unclear if the coins will be sold, but the 1,215 BTC was moved to separate addresses that are not labelled as belonging to the company. The move came as bitcoin traded above US$110,000, with upward momentum resuming.
In bitcoin buying news:
- Bitplanet, the South Korean public company backed by Simon Gerovich, Metaplanet’s CEO, completed its first daily BTC purchase on Sunday, October 26. The company acquired 93 BTC as it began working toward its goal of holding 10,000 BTC.
- Strategy bought 390 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 640,808 BTC at an average purchase price of US$74,032 per bitcoin. Also this week, S&P assigned Strategy a B-minus rating, placing it in the speculative bracket, due to the company’s exposure to volatility risks.
- Trump-backed American Bitcoin bought 1,414 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 3,865 BTC, worth US$445 million.
Bitcoin – 28 October, 2025.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Ethereum (ETH)
- Opened the week at US$3,984, declined to a weekly low of US$3,711, and then gained throughout the second half of the week as market sentiment improved on macro developments. Price has since retreated to settle around US$4,120 as the new week starts (+3.8% 7D).
- Ethereum dominance hovered around 13.2% this week.
- Ethereum-focused funds saw outflows of US$169 million this week.
The Ethereum Foundation moved US$610 million worth of ETH to a new wallet on Wednesday, October 22. The move is reportedly a routine transaction to a Safe multi-signature wallet, as the Foundation explores using DeFi protocols available on the platform, including Aave, Cowswap, and Morpho.
Ethereum layer-2 network, MegaETH saw US$350 million in pre-deposits in the hours following the launch of its initial coin offering. These pre-deposits came at a “hypothetical” fully diluted valuation of US$7 billion. Once completed, it’s expected that the ICO may raise up to US$1 billion.
In Ethereum buying news:
- BitMine added US$13.8 billion worth of ETH to its treasury last week, bringing its total holdings to over 3.3 million ETH, valued at over US$13.8 billion.
- SharpLink Gaming made its first Ethereum purchase in over a month. The company bought US$79 million worth of ETH, bringing its total holdings to 859,853 ETH, worth over US$3.5 billion.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Altcoins
The altcoin season index is currently at 43 as sentiment slowly turns more bullish following the October 10 sell-off.
AI-mazing
- Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) gained 79.3%. The network of productive artificial intelligence (AI) agents saw a rally of over 100% before retracing slightly. The gains came following the announcement of integrating Coinbase’s x402 protocol into the ecosystem. The protocol is an open payment standard, which enables AI agents to facilitate instant on-chain stablecoin payments.
Believe the HYPE
- HyperLiquid (HYPE) gained 79.5%. The gains are presumably due to whale activity on the decentralised exchange, and its announcement that the network is looking to raise US$1 billion to double down on its treasury plan and buy more HYPE.
Planets align
- Jupiter (JUP) gained 23.2%. The Solana-based project gained on news that its Q3 revenue grew by almost 20%, while trading volume grew by 71% to USS$242.8 billion. The network also announced it is developing a stablecoin, JupUSD, backed by Ethena Labs.
A presidential pardon
Layer-1 decline
Crypto ETF News
Digital asset investment products saw inflows of US$921 million this week, driven by renewed bullish sentiment following lower-than-forecast U.S. CPI data, which has also increased optimism about further U.S. rate cuts. Trading volumes across exchange-traded products were strong, at US$39 billion for the week, above the year-to-date average of US$28 billion.
In altcoins, Solana and XRP saw minor inflows of US$29.4 million and US$84.3 million, respectively.
A number of altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will begin trading this week, including Canary Capital’s Litecoin and Hedera funds, while Bitwise and Grayscale’s Solana ETFs will also begin trading.
ProShares filed an application to launch a crypto ETF that will track the CoinDesk 20 Index, which comprises the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap.
Other crypto news
- Crypto executives met with Senate Democrats and Republicans on Wednesday, October 22 to discuss divisions over the crypto market structure bill. The U.S. government shutdown and persistent partisan tension over the wording and inclusions in the bill indicate that the Senate remains divided. Republicans maintain that if the Senate can’t come to an agreement in November, a market structure bill likely won’t be passed before year-end. Democrats remain frustrated that Republicans allegedly leaked a Democrat proposal on DeFi language earlier in October, inviting criticism of the Democrats’ provisions from across the market.
- Mike Selig, Chief Counsel of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Crypto Task Force, has been nominated by President Trump to chair the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This selection signals stronger alignment between the SEC and CFTC on crypto regulation, and follows calls from the Winklevoss twins to drop former nominee Brian Quintenz over Gemini’s past regulatory issues with the agency.
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. is reportedly establishing systems that allow institutional clients to use bitcoin and Ethereum as loan collateral. Once implemented, it would mark one of the biggest integrations between crypto and Wall Street to date. The framework is expected to launch by the end of 2025. The development follows the bank’s earlier move to allow crypto ETF holdings as loan collateral.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve is exploring “skinny” master accounts to grant eligible fintech and crypto firms direct access to its payment rails. These streamlined accounts would exclude full banking privileges, such as no overdrafts and interest, and may carry balance caps. The proposal signifies a move toward modernising payment infrastructure while managing risk. The Federal Reserve payments innovation conference took place on October 21, though no notable outcomes or updates have been announced.
- U.S. payment processor, Zelle, will start using stablecoins to facilitate cross-border transactions. The company, owned by some of the largest banks in the U.S., aims to deliver faster, more reliable global payments with stablecoins. In other stablecoin news, Western Union will pilot stablecoin settlements for global remittances.
- Binance Founder, Changpeng Zhao (also known as “CZ”), was pardoned by President Trump. As part of his plea bargain, CZ resigned from his position as Binance’s CEO in 2023. He served a four-month sentence at a minimum security prison after he pleaded guilty to violating U.S. money laundering laws. Key Democrats, including Maxine Waters and Elizabeth Warren, criticised the decision, labelling it “pay-to-play corruption,” while BNB, World Liberty Financial (WLFI) and other meme coins all gained on the news.
