Bitcoin (BTC) may remain pinned below $100,000 for the first half of 2026 as the market lacks bullish catalysts amid macroeconomic uncertainties.
Key takeaways:
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BTC price has a less than 10% chance of retaking $100,000 before Feb. 1, according to prediction markets.
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Traders predict that Bitcoin is unlikely to see $100,000 before June.
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Bitcoin’s price will likely drop below Strategy’s cost basis.
Less than 10% chance BTC hits $100,000 before February
The majority of traders on Polymarket and Kalshi don’t expect Bitcoin to return to a six-figure price over the next seven days.
As of Thursday, Polymarket bettors are pricing in about 6% odds of BTC crossing $100,000 before Jan. 31. Kalshi sets 7% odds of BTC touching the $100,000 psychological level before the end of January.
Bitcoin’s high for 2026 sits at $97,900, reached on Jan. 14, and the last time the BTC/USD pair traded above $100,000 was on Nov. 13.
Related: Bitcoiners reject quantum computing fears as cause of price slump
The last time BTC/USD dropped below $100,000, it reclaimed the level after 93 days following a 25.5% drawdown.
If a similar scenario plays out, BTC price may retake $100,000 in mid-February, as shown in the chart below.
However, traders on Kalshi say that this may take longer, estimating a 65% chance that Bitcoin will break $100,000 before June.
In fact, traders on Polymarket see 65% odds of BTC dropping to $80,000 first, before returning to $100,000 in 2026.
Kalshi bettors price in 54% odds that Bitcoin will bottom out at $70,000 this year. Furthermore, the chance of it going to $65,000 is 50% and going as low as $60,000 is 42%.
Will BTC price drop below Strategy’s cost basis?
There are increasing signs that Bitcoin has transitioned into a bear market, with targets as low as $58,000.
Traders on Polymarket set a 75% chance that Bitcoin will trade below Strategy’s average BTC cost price in 2026, which was $75,979 at the time of writing.
Despite the expected drawdown in price, Polymarket odds for Strategy selling Bitcoin in 2026 remain below 26%, while expectations for routine small buys stay elevated.
Polymarket traders still see routine Strategy purchases throughout the year as a high-probability event, with an 84% chance of it holding over $800,000 BTC by Dec. 31.
Last week, Strategy expanded its Bitcoin treasury to 709,715 BTC after buying 22,305 coins for roughly $2.13 billion.
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