Bitcoin could be set for a 9% rally in July as it ended the month of June on a high with its highest monthly candle at just over $107,000, according to 10X Research.
Bitcoin’s previous highest month was May, with a monthly candle closure around $104,600, followed by January, when it closed the month at around $102,450.
The past three months have also seen consecutive green candles as the asset recovered from its April dip to $75,000.
All three record six-figure monthly candle highs have been in 2025, and the next nearest was in November 2024 when it closed at around $96,500, clocking more than $26,000 in gains over the period after US President Donald Trump’s election win.
Spinning top candle pattern
The record close comes despite June’s candle forming a “spinning top” pattern with a small body and long upper and lower wicks.
This formation suggests that neither buyers nor sellers gained control, often signaling a potential reversal in the price trend.
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The last similar green spinning top monthly candle occurred almost a year ago in July 2024, and was followed by a red “hammer” candle and a decline of 8.6% the following month when BTC dropped to $59,000.
High probability of July rally
Despite this, 10x Research’s head of research, Markus Thielen, told Cointelegraph that historical analysis suggests a high probability of a 9% rally for Bitcoin in July.
“The month has consistently been strong for US equities, which are expected to continue their upward momentum, and Bitcoin tends to follow suit.”
In seven of the past 10 Julys, Bitcoin has posted positive returns, with the average gain around 9%, he said before adding that even in the few years with negative performance, the declines were “modest” and stayed in single digits.
“This seasonal trend sets a favorable backdrop for a potential move higher.”
Weekly candle below resistance
Analyst “Rekt Capital” took a look at the weekly candle close on Monday, observing that it closed below the “final major weekly resistance,” which was at $108,890. The weekly candle closed at $108,380 on Coinbase, according to TradingView.
They added that a “possible early-stage lower high resistance” may be developing at current price levels.
Bitcoin will need to reclaim the weekly resistance as support on the daily to invalidate this lower high, the analyst said.
Bitcoin prices have dipped 2% over the past 24 hours, falling to just below $107,000 at the time of writing. However, the asset has remained tightly rangebound at this level for the past week.
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