Bitcoin is poised to buck its usual strong November performance, but Bitfinex analysts suggest demand could return very soon.
November has historically been Bitcoin’s (BTC) strongest month, posting an average return of 40.82%, according to CoinGlass. However, October closed down 3.69% — despite typically delivering average gains of around 19.92% — leading some to question whether seasonal trends are still a reliable consideration.
“We are also on track to close November in the red,” Bitfinex analysts said in a report on Tuesday, as the asset’s price traded 20.60% below its price at the beginning of the month.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $87,305, according to CoinMarketCap.
“In the current quarter, historic seasonality metrics have failed to hold up,” Bitfinex analysts said.
Bitcoin whale interest is slowly bumping up again
The mixed signals have caught traders off guard. Merlin The Trader, for example, said earlier this month that weak sentiment following October’s decline could set the asset up for a stronger November.
“Low sentiment. Bullish seasonality. The perfect setup,” he said in an X post on Nov. 3.
Meanwhile, Bitfinex analysts noted that this is only the third occasion since early 2024 when Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the lower band of the short-term holders’ cost-basis model.
Bitcoin short-term holders, those holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days, have an average realized price of $86,787, according to CoinGlass.
Many Bitcoin buyers above $106,000 are now “capitulating at a loss”
Bitfinex analysts attributed the recent price fall to market froth, noting that buying activity around the $106,000 and $118,000 levels was significantly heavier than usual.
They said as a result, a deeper layer of holders is now “capitulating at a loss.”
Related: Bitcoin volatility surge may signal return to options-driven prices: Analyst
Bitfinex analysts said the market now faces two possible paths: either a “meaningful resurgence in demand,” or the market will be forced into a “longer and potentially deeper accumulation phase.
But some signs suggest that demand among Bitcoin whales is slowly increasing again. Crypto sentiment platform Santiment said in an X post on Tuesday that the number of wallets holding at least 100 Bitcoin has risen by 0.47% (91 wallets) since Nov. 11.
Regardless of whether seasonal trends still hold, December has historically been a quieter month for Bitcoin, with average returns of 4.75% since 2013.
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