US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) holders are showing relatively strong conviction despite a four-month Bitcoin downtrend, according to ETF analyst James Seyffart.
“The ETFs are still hanging in there pretty good,” Seyffart said in an X post on Wednesday.
While Seyffart said that Bitcoin (BTC) ETF holders are facing their “biggest losses” since the US products launched in January 2024 — at a paper loss of around 42% with Bitcoin below $73,000 — he argues the recent outflows pale in comparison to the inflows during the market’s peak.
Bitcoin ETF holders are “underwater and collectively holding”
Before the October downturn, spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows were around $62.11 billion. They’ve now fallen to about $55 billion, according to preliminary data from Farside.
“Not too shabby,” Seyffart said.
Meanwhile, investment researcher Jim Bianco said in an X post on Wednesday that the average spot Bitcoin ETF holder is 24% “underwater and collectively holding.”
Bitcoin holders often look to the performance and flows of spot Bitcoin ETFs to gauge market sentiment and potential near-term price direction.
Bitcoiners are being “very short-sighted”
Crypto analytics account Rand pointed out in an X post on Tuesday that this is “the first time in history there have been three consecutive months of outflows.”
The extended outflows come as Bitcoin’s spot price has fallen 24.73% over the past 30 days, trading at $70,537 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.
Some analysts argue that Bitcoin investors are overlooking the bigger picture.
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ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said on Jan. 28 that Bitcoiners are being “very short-sighted,” given that Bitcoin’s performance since 2022 has been up over 400%, compared with gold at 177% and silver at 350%.
“In other words, bitcoin spanked everything so bad in ’23 and ’24 (which ppl seem to forget) that those other assets still haven’t caught up even after having their greatest year ever and BTC being in a coma,” Balchunas said.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said in an X post on Wednesday that “every Bitcoin analyst is now bearish.”
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