Bitcoin’s price downtrend may not be as short-lived as many holders anticipate, says crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen.
“Bitcoin’s likely going to keep bleeding against the stock market,” Cowen said in a video on Thursday, adding that strong expectations of a “massive rotation” from metals like gold and silver into crypto may be misplaced.
The prices of gold and silver have recently surged to all-time highs of $5,608.33 and $121.64, respectively, according to Trading Economics.
Citi predicts silver won’t slow down
Citi predicted on Tuesday that silver could climb to $150 within the next three months, driven by Chinese demand and the US dollar hitting four-year lows.
However, Cowen emphasized that the rotation to Bitcoin is “probably not going to happen” in the short term.
Many in the crypto market are betting that gold and silver hitting new all-time highs is a signal that history will repeat and Bitcoin will eventually follow.
Bitcoin is trading at $82,859 at the time of publication, down 7.78% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap.
It comes as sentiment across the broader crypto market has been waning. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, posted an “extreme fear” score of 16, indicating that investors are significantly cautious about the crypto market.
Other analysts are more optimistic
Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph that the market may be near a turning point, saying, “We’re right on the cusp of where we’d traditionally expect to see re-risking back into Bitcoin.”
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“Bitcoin bottoms have historically lagged gold’s relative strength by about 14 months,” Hundal explained, adding that he anticipates the rotation will happen in February or March.
“If history repeats, and it is a big if, the gold-Bitcoin dynamic points to a potential BTC bottom forming over the next 40 days,” Hundal said.
Hundal emphasized that gold typically leads during periods of macro stress, and then Bitcoin follows once risk appetite returns.
“If that model isn’t broken, the tape should start to look less fragile by the end of the quarter,” he said.
Meanwhile, Bitwise Europe head of research, Andre Dragosch, said in an X post on Jan. 19 that Bitcoin “is trading at a steep discount to Gold on a relative basis.”
“These asymmetric setups are very rare,” he said, adding that “if flows turn, Q1 2026 could be the inflection point.”
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