Prediction market traders on Polymarket are tipping 21% odds of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 this year, despite man analysts seeing 2026 as a belated bull year for Bitcoin.
According to the current market on “what price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?,” Polymarket shows 45% odds of Bitcoin reaching $120,000, a price point below its all-time high.
The odds fall further at $130,000, with just a 35% probability, while $140,000 has a 28% chance and $150,000 has a 21% chance.
The safest bet traders are currently willing to place on overall is a mere $100,000 at 80%.
While it’s not entirely clear what has made users so cautious, the ending of the four-year cycle may have something to do with it, after BTC closed 2025 in the red.
The four-year cycle was market pattern surrounding halving events that had played out several times over Bitcoin’s history, enabling chartists to plot future moves. With this coming to an end, it opens the door for new trading patterns to emerge.
Related: Bitcoin options boom raises fears of capped BTC upside
Despite the bearish odds, analysts have been tipping a bullish year for Bitcoin.
President Donald Trump is set to announce a new US Federal Reserve chair in the coming weeks, which may be a boon for crypto as many expect interest rates to be slashed.
Such anticipation has in part already fueled a surge in the price of precious metals such as gold and silver, with both hitting new ATHs in the fourth quarter of 2025, despite digital commodities in crypto remaining flat.
Meanwhile, major crypto bills — the GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act — are expected to bring more regulatory clarity, which may open the door for more institutional adoption.
Many analysts from firms such as Standard Chartered, Strategy, and Bernstein are predicting the price of BTC to hit $150,000 in 2026, while some on the more optimistic side, such as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, are anticipating a price of around $200,000 to $250,000.
Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026
