A wave of institutional crypto participation spurred by exchange-traded funds, an easing of regulations in the US, an increase in global liquidity, and a Federal Reserve leadership change are just some of the reasons why analysts think the typical four-year cycle is broken.
The four-year cycle, tied to Bitcoin (BTC) halving events, cuts miner rewards in half and reduces the supply of new Bitcoin entering circulation.
Historically, this was seen as the catalyst for a predictable pattern: accumulation, a post-halving bull run that peaked around 18 months later, followed by a sharp correction and multi-year bear market.
Some analysts note that Bitcoin’s current price action is playing out exactly as a four-year cycle would, as it has declined 30% from its peak in the year after the halving, and has entered a bearish phase.
Four-year cycle has broken, say analysts
Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the halving cycle appeared to start to break down in 2025.
He added the breakdown was driven by sustained institutional demand through ETFs and corporate treasuries that “lessened the expected post-peak crash and reduced volatility compared to prior cycles.”
“While the bull market may face near-term consolidation amid macroeconomic pressures, we anticipate it will extend into 2026 with support from ongoing structural inflows and evolving market dynamics.”
Earlier in December, Grayscale predicted that Bitcoin would reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, citing a growing macro demand due to currency debasement and a supportive regulatory environment in the US.
“We expect rising valuations in 2026 and the end of the so-called ‘four-year cycle,’ or the theory that crypto market direction follows a recurring four-year pattern.”
Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, said in early December that the cycle theory was “no longer valid” and halved the bank’s prediction, now saying Bitcoin will hit $150,000 by the end of 2026.
Other crypto executives, including Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, and CEO Hunter Horsley, and Real Vision founder Raoul Pal all think that the four-year cycle is a thing of the past.
Four-year cycles are still a thing
However, several analysts think the cycle is still in play and crypto has already entered a bear market.
Related: Crypto has everything needed for a bull market, so why is the market down?
“Bitcoin entered a bear market in late October 2025, becoming the first major risk asset to price in a slowing economy,” 10x Research CEO Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph earlier in December.
Analyst “Rekt Capital” has also maintained that the four-year cycle is still intact, but said on December 20 that “If BTC’s 4-year cycle is ‘broken,’ it’s probably just leveling up.”
Analysts have also claimed that traders expect the cycle to be intact and sell in anticipation of it, further depressing prices.
The creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, who is known as “PlanB,” said on Dec. 17 that most of the selling was due to “OGs traumatized by 2021,” and “four-year cycle fans expecting a bear market two years post-halving.”
Analyst Alex Wacy said on Tuesday that the four-year cycle isn’t broken, but expectations are.
“Altcoins bled. No euphoria. No altseason. Just boredom and pain. While stocks made ATHs, AI went vertical, and gold outperformed. Cycles don’t always end. Sometimes they stretch.”
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