Will Resistance at $2 Abate Price Rebound?

Social sentiment toward XRP (XRP) has tanked into the “fear zone,” an occurrence that has preceded strong rallies in the past.

Key takeaways:

• Social sentiment toward XRP has plunged into the “fear zone,” levels that have historically preceded strong rallies. 

• XRP price must close above $2 on the daily chart to open the way toward $2.50.

XRP sentiment plummets

Market intelligence platform Santiment said on Monday that “XRP is seeing far more negative social media commentary than average,” increasing the likelihood of a “strong price rebound.”

Related: Three data signals showing XRP trader demand has evaporated

The chart below shows that the last two times fear from the crowd was this low were Nov. 21 and Dec. 5, and XRP’s price immediately rallied 22% and 11% over the few days, respectively. 

“Historically, this setup leads to price rises,” Santiment added.

“When retail has doubts about a coin’s ability to rise, the rise becomes significantly more likely.”

XRP has dropped 1.8% over the past 24 hours to below $1.85, bringing the drawdown from its seven-year high of $3.66 to 49%. 

Crypto analysts agreed with Satiment that XRP’s drop is not necessarily bearish. 

“XRP sentiment is ugly again. But the money doesn’t look scared,” said analyst DefiPeniel in a recent X analysis referring to the perfect streak of inflows into spot ETFs since launch.

As Cointelegraph reported, these investment products have surpassed $1.2 billion in assets under management with cumulative inflows of $1.13 billion.

This reinforces long-term confidence from institutional investors despite “boring” price action, DefiPeniel said, adding:

“Markets don’t bottom when vibes improve. They bottom when price holds and sentiment breaks.”

XRP key price levels to watch

XRP must flip the resistance provided by the multi-month descending trendline at $1.92 into support to increase the chances of a sustained recovery.

The next major resistance sits between $1.96 and $2.00, where investors acquired $1.5 billion XRP, according to Glassnode’s cost basis distribution heatmap.

The area from $2.10 to $2.50 would also pose a challenge to any recovery efforts. Note that this is where all the major moving averages sit: the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2.10, the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $2.25, and the 50-week SMA at $2.50. 

The XRP/USD pair is “still in a strong downtrend. The price was rejected multiple times at $2.50–$2.70 (200 SMA and the downtrend line),” said X user C3_trading in a recent X post.

The analyst added that the technical bias remains bearish until a decisive breakout from a descending channel is achieved.

An accompanying chart shows the upper boundary of the channel sits around $1.92-$1.96, which must be broken to end the downtrend.

“Wait for a breakout above $2.50 for trend shift, otherwise expect continuation lower.”

Meanwhile, the bears will attempt to keep the $1.92 resistance in place, and then pull the price below $1.80. The next target below this is $1.75 (reached on Dec. 19) and the April low of $1.61.

As Cointelegraph reported, losing $1.61 support will increase the likelihood of XRP plunging to $1.25 and subsequently to the psychological support at $1 in 2026.

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