Key points:
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Bitcoin is on track for one of its worst October performances since 2013.
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Previous bull market years offered a minimum of 40% gains.
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The Federal Reserve may offer a last-minute reprieve at next week’s meeting.
Bitcoin (BTC) “Uptober” hangs in the balance as price threatens to print the first “red” October since 2018.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows that at current prices, BTC/USD is 2.3% below its monthly starting level.
Bearish October hinges on 4% BTC price loss
October 2025 has disappointed Bitcoin bulls so far, as an early surge to new all-time highs quickly turned into a liquidation nightmare.
Now acting in a narrow range between around $107,000 and $111,500, the BTC price has much ground to make up by the monthly candle close.
CoinGlass demonstrates just how far behind the market now is: the average upside for October since 2013 has been 20%, which would put Bitcoin at over $130,000.
Alternatively, BTC/USD only needs to end October 4% lower to seal its worst performance in 12 years.
THIS IS THE WORST UPTOBER EVER.
The only worse one was 2014 (-13%).
2013: +60%
2017: +50%
2021: +40%
2025: -4%Bad Uptober usually means one thing: MOONVEMBER. pic.twitter.com/6BMrNp4afD
— Rekt Fencer (@rektfencer) October 23, 2025
The picture is particularly bad for a bull market year — in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin gained at least 40% in October.
Its weakest tenth month of the year was 2014, with a 13% downside.
Now or never for “Uptober” reclaim
Meanwhile, fresh data from network economist Timothy Peterson puts 2025 BTC price action into perspective.
Related: Bitcoin price to 6X in 2026? M2 supply boom sparks COVID-19 comparisons
The latest bull market stands out from the rest, charts uploaded to X this week show — but not in the way that bulls would like.
At the start of the month, however, Peterson observed that the bulk of “Uptober” upside tends to occur in the second half.
“60% of Bitcoin’s full-year performance occurs after October 3rd,” he added in prior research from September.
News that the US Federal Reserve could signal the end of quantitative tightening (QT) at its Oct. 29 meeting could provide a “huge signal” for markets, Peterson said.
As Cointelegraph reported, expectations are that the Fed will lower interest rates despite a lack of inflation data, pointing to more favorable conditions for crypto and risk assets going forward.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
